Sadiq Khan in major trouble as new election stats reveal 'Susan Hall could really win'

The latest voter turnout figures suggest Sadiq Khan "could lose the race" to continue as Mayor of London. While some numbers have yet to be released, the picture looks worse for Mr Khan than for his Tory rival Susan Hall - who was a huge outsider.

In the Barnet and Camden constituency turnout has fallen by 3.41 percentage points, according to an Express analysis comparing 2024 figures with those of the last London mayoral election in 2021.

The City and East constituency, which is made up of the boroughs Barking and Dagenham, City of London, Newham and Tower Hamlets, has seen a -3.83 percentage drop. These are areas which traditionally vote Labour and have helped Sadiq Khan win previous elections.

Greenwich and Lewisham is down -1.67 percentage points; Lambeth and Southwark -1.87 percentage points and the North East constituency of Hackney, Islington and Waltham Forest has dropped -2.43 percentage points.

All the above-mentioned constituencies voted majority Labour at the last mayoral election.

This compares to outer London constituencies, where turnout is up 4.38 percentage points in Bexley and Bromley and up 4.02 percentage points in Ealing and Hillingdon. Both constituencies were majority Conservative in the 2021 mayoral election.

Commentators have taken to social media to express their concern at the figures, which come ahead of the vote counting due to start at 10am on Saturday (May 4).

Columnist Ian Dunt wrote on X: "The London turnout data is making me rather nervous." Stephen Bush, Associate Editor at the Financial Times, posted on the same platform: "Turnout figures from the London mayoralty: I think Susan Hall really could do it, you know."

While turnout dropped in some Labour held constituencies, it rose 0.62 percentage points in Enfield and Haringey. In South West, made up of Hounslow, Kingston Upon Thames, Richmond Upon Thames, turnout was down -1.74 percentage points. That constituency returned a Conservative majority in 2021, as did West Central (Hammersmith and Fulham, Kensington and Chelsea, Westminster), which our analysis shows has dropped -4.02 percentage points this time around.

Author and journalist Paul Mason wrote on X: "London turnout confirms Labour concerns: poorest and most diverse area - the wider East End - an abysmal 31 percent, while outer London in general much higher... as I was saying last night: apathy, anomie and atomisation are the big challenge."

Whisperings of a victory from Ms Hall swirled on Friday (May 3), with some supporters tipping the Tory candidate to win on the back of low turnout. She fought a campaign on crime and a pledge to scrap the extension of London's ULEZ scheme.

Mr Khan appeared to acknowledge the risk low turnout could lose him the race in a series of X posts on election day in which he urged supporters to get out and vote. He emphasised his record on pollution, house-building and offer of free school meals.

He has sought to distance himself from Labour's line on the Israel-Hamas war, calling for a ceasefire in Gaza. Tory peer Robert Hayward predicted Mr Khan will avoid a backlash as a result.

Outer London boroughs, which tend to favour the Conservatives compared to those in inner London that usually back Labour, appear to have seen an increase in turnout, but by no means all.

The turnout figures released by London Elects so far:

Barnet and Camden: 39.59 percent (electorate 413,809)

Bexley and Bromley: 48.38 percent (electorate 421,800)

Brent and Harrow: 37.09 percent (428,775)

City and East: 31.17 percent (628,856)

Croydon and Sutton: 42.27 percent (440,715)

Ealing and Hillingdon: 42.98 percent (453,892)

Enfield and Haringey: 41.38 percent (399,677)

Greenwich and Lewisham: 40.33 percent (399,703)

Havering and Redbridge: 42.94 percent

Lambeth and Southwark: 39.13 percent (448,552)

Merton and Wandsworth: 45.99 percent (384,678)

North East: 39.57 percent (524,885)

South West: 45.26 percent (455,381)

West Central: 34.98 percent (359,208)